Generals who plan to fight the previous generation’s war are
bound to lose. Hillary Clinton had 8 years to crate a presidential
campaign, and she spent 8 years building a political Maginot line.
Hillary’s primal political experience at the national level was the DLC
of the 90s. After being kicked around by Regan's Republican Party, the
Democratic Party essentially followed the “New Labor” model of cozying
up to big business and the moneyed elite, at the expense of the working
class And labor unions. Essentially the DLC Democrats split the baby in
half, trying to be “Republican Light”… pro business, but with liberal
social values. And with the charismatic Bill Clinton leading it, this
was enough to keep the executive branch, even if it meant losing
legislative branches of the government. The 1990s Gingrich revolution
was possible because Democrats abandoned its labor and working-class
base.
So it was utterly predictable that the
centerpiece of Hillary Clinton’s Presidential bid was the Clinton
Foundation. Cozy up to big money. Get the support of the moneyed elites.
Signal, both in dog whistles and in overt speeches, that the wealthy
and the powerful have nothing to fear from a Clinton White House… she
was one of them.
The problem is she did this in the
wake of the 2008 economic crisis. She did this in the wake of President
Obama winning 2 elections on the promise of CHANGE. One of the
Cornerstones of her presidential bid was something that worked in 1992,
but was surely going to be an Achilles heel in 2016. She could have
spent 6 years building up a populist base… building up a coalition that
could splinter the lower class/lower-information foundation-stone of the
republican party. Instead she went with what she knew. It probably
seemed like a safe bet.
But then she went on to
make another “safe bet.” Her time at the State Department could have
been spent building up her bonafides as a genuine progressive leader in
the realm of foreign policy... she could have been a vocal counterpoint
to Obama’s hawkishness… but instead she was the vocal hawk in the Obama
administration.
This hawkishness was a cornerstone
of Clinton’s Campaign. If you are going to be a woman, and want to have a
chance of leading the free world, you better be ready, willing and able
to bomb the shit out of everyone and everything. That seems to have
been the conventional thinking of her campaign. Her foreign policy was a
weird fusion of Neo-Con imperialism, and Cold War Democratic
“pragmatism,” which, given the absence of a cold war, required
reigniting one.
This foreign policy can be summed
up quite clearly, by her campaign speech on Israel. Again… she went with
what she knew. She went with what worked in the 90s. She promised
another 4 years of the same foreign policy.. the same wars… the same
bombing and the same imperialism. The same surveillance state and
endless war on terror. It is unsurprising that in a “change” election,
promising more of the same wasn’t very compelling.
Another
cornerstone of her campaign was “another 4 years of Obama… I’m sort of
like Obama, right?”. The expectation that the racial coalition that
Obama had put together would turn out in full force for her… because she
was a minority too(?!).. a woman. But turnout was lower for her among
these ethnic voting blocks then it was for Obama… In large part because
of the economic and foreign policy triangulation she chose. And the
women? White women voted for trump at a 53% rate. There was a serious
misunderstanding of gender solidarity in this country… at least in the
context of presidential elections.
And finally, the
main message of her campaign seems to have been “That other guy is
scary and horrible and incompetent. So you better vote for me or else.”
And she wasn’t wrong… Trump, or (frankly) any other republican who was
running was scary and horrible and incompetent. But this was the
central message of the John Kerry campaign, when Bush won a second term.
It was not a compelling campaign message then, and it wasn’t in 2016.
It’s a message that one goes with when one has nothing better to offer.
Vote for me or else we will lose Obama Care… we will lose the right to
Abortion… we will lose the racial and gender equity we’ve gained… etc
etc.
Except most of the people she needed to
convince and excite and get the vote of were not the beneficiaries of
these “gains.” Its hard to get an abortion in Red States. Racial Equity
and justice isn’t terribly visible when the police continue to kill POC
with impunity, literary every day. And throughout the rural red states
where governors refused to expand Medicare coverage, Obama Care isn’t
something to protect, because it hasn’t done anything for most people.
This fear that she shamelessly stoked (Russian agent! Putin! Putin!!)
was ultimately not compelling enough, to enough voters.
I
hope the Democratic Party learns the right lessons from this defeat.
And to be frank… after 30 years of watching the democratic party form a
circular firing squad, and snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, I’m
not terribly hopefully.
But I have children. I’m fighting now, for their
future. I don’t have the privilege of despair or denial or
disengagement. The struggle is long, and exhausting. But I’ll keep
fighting. I am tired, and filled with rage and horror and frustration. I
had hoped that the Bush Regime would be the most horrible thing that I
would have to explain to my children. It turns out it is not. There are
far worse horrors in the world, and they are banging on our doors.
But
I will keep fighting. I hope others are willing to continue as well,
with eyes wid open, and a willingness to face hard truths about our
Maginot Lines and conventional wisdom.
